A very interesting and eye opening revelation recently came over
the transom from Tehran: In an interview to the state-run news agency IRNA, president Rouhani threatened that “if the other side breaches the deal, wewill go back to the old path, stronger than what they can imagine.”
We can set aside the belligerent tone here: Bluster and bullying
have long been the Tehran regime’s stock-in-trade. But it’s worth spending a
few minutes parsing Rouhani’s words. The “other side” is the collection of
world powers, known as the P5+1, that are currently negotiating with Iran over
its nuclear program. (They’ve just extended the deadline by a week, to July 7.) The “deal” is a
long-sought bargain that would allow the regime in Tehran to pursue peaceful
nuclear technology while the world lifts economic sanctions on Iran.
But what, pray, is “the old path” along which the
cleric-president is threatening to take his country? Since its secret nuclear
plant in Natanz was
revealed in 2002 by the dissident group NCRI, the
Iranian regime has sworn, over and over again, that it has never pursued
nuclear weapons.
The first interpretation for those naïve minded people is to
believe the regime’s claim of peaceful nuclear work, then Rouhani’s threat
makes no sense. The “old path” would simply be more “peaceful” nuclear
research, allowing the sanctions to continue devastating the Iranian economy. That’s
not so much a threat as a flagellant’s cry for help: “If you go back on your
word, I’ll hurt myself.”
The second interpretation would be that Rouhani is merely
bluffing: There’s no “old path,” and Tehran is simply trying to frighten the
P5+1 into relenting on the remaining sticking points at the negotiating table in Vienna. (To his
critics, President Barack Obama’s claim that the US will walk away from negotiations if it doesn’t get a good deal smacks of bluff,
too.)
But the logical and rational mindset is that Rouhani has
unwittingly revealed that Iran was indeed pursuing nukes. That would be a real
threat, especially if he is also sincere in pursuing this path “stronger than
what they can imagine.” Revealingly, even as it has suspended uranium
enrichment activities while negotiating with the P5+1, Iran has refused to let the IAEA, the international nuclear
watchdog, to investigate whether it has been pursuing nuclear-weapons
development.
So, what’s Rouhani’s game—bluff or blackmail? The P5+1
negotiators will call that one off with their eyes wide open, hopefully by July
7.
No comments:
Post a Comment