Americans are not behind Iran deal: Mark Mellman

Americans rallying in New York against Iran nuclear deal

The Hill, 8 September 2015
By Mark Mellman
In our representative democracy, public policy only imperfectly reflects public opinion.
Fortunately, Democrats passed healthcare reform despite the fact that, among the public at the time, opponents outnumbered supporters by 5 to 15 points. Republicans shut down the government in 2013 despite 3-to-1 opposition from voters. 
And, of course, Republicans stopped legislation mandating background checks for all gun purchasers even though voters favor the proposal by a 75-point margin.
The Iran nuclear agreement is about to join this list of legislation whose ultimate disposition is contrary to the desire of the majority of Americans.
Of course, the path to that outcome is paved by unusual rules: Only one-third of one chamber of Congress is required to “pass” the agreement.
If it were up to voters, though, Congress would reject it.
The most recent surveys on the deal, by Quinnipiac and Pew, found voters opposing it by 30 and 28-point margins, respectively. Moreover, by 2-to-1, Americans say it will make the world less, rather than more, safe.
A somewhat earlier CBS News poll found voters opposing the agreement by a 13-point margin. In the same survey, Americans opined that “the United States could have negotiated an agreement that was more favorable” to us, by 2-to-1. 
Of course, a few polls of late have offered divergent results.
One, from the University of Maryland, was not intended to measure opinions but rather to create them. It gives respondents literally a page and a half of explanations and arguments before soliciting their views.
In other surveys, the cues have been more subtle.
In an earlier column, I explained that survey questions that argue, in effect, that it’s a good deal, find Americans supporting it. However, when people are asked their opinion in an unbiased way that reflects their own understanding of the agreement, they oppose it.
Americans, I argued, would favor an agreement with Iran that worked. Most doubt this one will and therefore oppose it.more